A massive wrench thrown in Putin's  works
By M K Bhadrakumar
It almost seemed since the month  of May that in the battles of the Caspian energy war, Russian President Vladimir  Putin was destined to glide serenely from victory to victory until next March  when he leaves office in the Kremlin.
But a backlash was bound to happen.  Putin's standing as the ace player in the Great Game of our times had surely  become an eyesore for Western capitals.
You could tell it from the  stillness in the air, as the autumn began stealthily approaching the Central  Asian steppes, that something was afoot. Are we heading for a season of  unraveling, with the West bracing, no matter what it takes, for a marathon  jawing that would somehow punctuate the claustrophobic intensity of the  Kremlin's string of success stories in May-June - and create an  alternative?
In focus is Turkmenistan, the energy-rich gas powerhouse of  Central Asia. These have been manic weeks in Ashgabat. The melodrama is acute.  But then the inscrutable space between victory and the chimera of victory has  always been very narrow in Central Asia.
September 1 was the cutoff date  that the Kremlin penciled in for the signing of agreements relating to the  Russian-Kazakh-Turkmen gas deal that Putin had wrapped up during his sensational  Central Asia summit on May 12. But September is drawing to a close, and not only  have the agreements not been signed, the main protagonist, Turkmen President  Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov, is unavailable in Ashgabat. He has proceeded on an  extended visit to the United States, accompanied by bigwigs in the Turkmen oil  and gas industry. It suddenly dawns that in one big throw of the dice, the US  and the European Union are desperately playing themselves back into the game,  which Moscow thought it had all but secured.
 
The empire strikes back
 On May 12, at the tripartite Central Asia summit in the city of  Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan, Putin, Berdimukhamedov and Kazakh President  Nurusultan Nazarbayev announced their intent to upgrade and expand  gas-transportation pipelines from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan along the eastern  shore of the Caspian Sea, directly to Russia. Simultaneously, it was announced  that the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-Russia pipeline of the Soviet era  would also be modernized.
The intention was to overhaul the Soviet-era  pipeline system known as Central Asia-Center, ensuring it would have a capacity  of 90 billion to 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) at the Russian border by 2010 so  that it could handle the production of the vast Turkmen and Uzbek gas fields.  Moscow wanted the relevant inter-government agreements to be signed by September  1 so that the corporate agreements could be concluded by the end of the year,  and consortiums could be formed by early 2008. Moscow expected actual  construction to commence by the middle of next year.
The entire project  is predicated on the belief that Russia will have almost exclusive access to  Turkmenistan's vast gas reserves and will hold a near-monopoly on Turkmen gas  exports.
Watchers of the Great Game concluded that Putin had dealt a  death blow to all Western plans to bring Turkmen gas to the European market  bypassing Russian territory, which has been the leitmotif of the United States'  Central Asia policy over the past 15 years.
On the one hand, the Russian  stratagem to get exclusive hold over Turkmen gas meant that the proposed  trans-Caspian pipeline project and Nabucco pipeline project, and the existing  Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Odessa-Brody-Poland pipeline - westward energy  routes to Europe supported by the US - were all doomed. On the other hand,  Moscow was poised to tighten its control of the transit and use of Central Asian  oil and gas, apart from drawing the region's bulk of future outputs to transit  routes under Russian control.
Without doubt, in their totality, the May  12 agreements meant that Moscow inflicted a strategic defeat on the United  States' Central Asia policy. To reinforce the success, Putin visited Austria on  May 23-24 and signed various agreements under which the Russian gas company  Gazprom would enlarge its market share in Austria and gain direct access to the  retail trade, and Russia would use Austria as a transit corridor for European  markets in Italy, France, Hungary, Germany, Slovenia and Croatia. With this, the  Nabucco pipeline project's future, in particular, looked extremely  gloomy.
Everything seemed to work in Moscow's favor when on June 23 a  memorandum was signed in Rome between Gazprom and Italy's ENI on a 900-kilometer  pipeline project across the Black Sea from Russia to Bulgaria with an annual  capacity of about 30bcm. The undersea pipeline, on reaching Bulgaria, would have  two options for the Bulgaria-Italy route. A southwestern option would be through  Greece and the Adriatic seabed in the Otranto Strait to southern Italy, while a  northwestern route would run from Bulgaria via Romania, Hungary and Slovenia  (and possibly Austria) to northern Italy. Bulgaria and Greece promptly announced  their intention to join the project, known as the South Stream project. The Wall  Street Journal aptly described it as a "pipeline into the heart of  Europe".
The upstream source for the South Stream project would be  largely Central Asian and Siberian gas. Russia's game plan was obvious: maximize  its control of the export routes for Central Asian gas. Russia signaled that it  was outstripping the US both in regard of the upstream race for Central Asian  gas as well as in the race for control of transit and downstream  activity.
Alarm bells began ringing in Washington. On May 30, Vice  President Dick Cheney's deputy assistant for national security affairs, Joseph  Wood, rushed to Baku, Azerbaijan. He had a single message: Washington intended  to meet the Russian challenge head-on and would persist with the policy of  opening direct access to Central Asian oil and gas through Azerbaijan and  Georgia, bypassing Russian territory and Russian pipelines. He stressed the US  would push ahead with the Nabucco and Turkey-Greece-Italy gas transport  projects. He told the Azerbaijani leadership that it should take the initiative  to sort out Azerbaijan's bilateral disputes with Turkmenistan so that the latter  could be drawn into the proposed gas projects.
Simultaneously, on June 1,  Steven Mann, US principal deputy assistant secretary of state, held talks with  Berdimukhamedov in Ashgabat. Mann strongly pitched for the trans-Caspian gas  pipeline project (Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan to Georgia to Turkey to Europe). He  conveyed Washington's keen interest that Turkmenistan should sell its gas to the  European market directly, without the Russian intermediary.
Other senior  US officials began fanning out to the Caspian region carrying similar messages  that it would be far more advantageous for the Central Asian gas- and  oil-producing countries to deal with European buyers directly. Thus US assistant  secretary of state Richard Boucher visited Kazakhstan and Deputy Assistant  Secretary of State Matthew Bryza visited Azerbaijan in the first week of June.  Washington also began pressuring the European Union to display a sense of  urgency in forestalling the looming Russian monopoly over Central Asia's gas  exports.
Washington's primary intent was to sow seeds of doubt in the  Turkmen mind regarding the wisdom of putting all its eggs in the Russian basket.  On June 21, Washington upped the ante when Admiral William Fallon, commander of  the US Central Command, arrived in Ashgabat and was received by Berdimukhamedov.  Fallon carried a brief on energy cooperation. The consultation was evidently  productive. On June 27, when Evan Feigenbaum, US deputy assistant secretary of  state for South and Central Asian affairs, arrived in Ashgabat with a delegation  of American oil majors, he heard good news. "The president [Berdimukhamedov]  stated publicly, very clearly, that Turkmenistan remains interested in the  trans-Caspian pipeline," Feigenbaum later told the media.
He said his  message to the Turkmen leader was, "American policy on energy has been very  clear for a very long time. Monopoly tends to work to the disadvantage of  producers ... The point is, what is good for the United States is good for the  global energy supply and global energy security. That has been the basis of our  conversation with Turkmenistan and other producers in this part of the  world."
Ten days after Feigenbaum's discussions, Matthew Bryza, deputy  assistant secretary of state, arrived in Ashgabat. On the eve of the visit,  Bryza said in Washington on July 10, "There is a large - huge - supply of  natural gas in the far-western reaches of Turkmenistan, which, if the market  decides, will make its way to Europe via Azerbaijan ... And I'll leave for  Turkmenistan tomorrow to see if we can help Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan build on  the momentum they've already created in their relations."
A wrench in the  wheel
 
Moscow certainly took note of these strange goings on - a stream of  senior US diplomats attired in pinstripe suits with top executives of oil majors  with suspiciously heavy-looking attache cases in tow, trooping out of Ashgabat  hotel rooms almost every week. If there was any doubt about what they were up  to, that became clear in late July when US-based energy company Chevron  announced its intention to open an office in Ashgabat and participate in the  development of Caspian energy resources.
On July 3, at a public ceremony  in Ashgabat marking his 50th birthday, Berdimukhamedov said Turkmenistan  maintained its "neutral status" and had "equal relationships" with all. He  added, "Without joining any kind of political alliances, we will carry on with  our efforts to build new gas pipelines to carry our gas to China, and to  Pakistan and India via Afghanistan, and to Europe via the Caspian Sea. This  means that we will have equal and mutually beneficial relations with Russia and  the United States, with European countries, and with our neighbors as well."  (Emphasis added.)
Even if Moscow kept up an air of confidence about  Berdimukhamedov, a degree of uneasiness was inevitably creeping in. This became  apparent when in an interview with the Russian media on July 6, Russian First  Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Denisov hit out that the string of Russian  successes in the Caspian energy war was "getting on Washington's nerves". He  continued, "The US has been lobbying the idea of an East-West energy corridor  for a long time. Its aim is to arrange the transportation of hydrocarbons from  the Caspian region bypassing the territories of Russia and Iran."
He  warned the "notorious trans-Caspian gas pipeline" would run into obstacles,  since the status of the Caspian Sea was yet to be determined, and second,  Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan were involved in disputes over the ownership of a  number of fields. "In addition, the special nature of the Caspian should be  taken into consideration. Here the risks are very high due to the closed nature  of the water system, the geology of the sea bed and the presence of strong  underwater currents," Denisov pointed out.
Indeed, Denisov has a point.  Moscow is betting on how Washington will be able to cross such formidable  hurdles. Russia and Iran are literally in a position to throw a wrench in the  wheel if they sense that Washington is getting close to the realization of the  trans-Caspian project. Both Moscow and Tehran will be keenly watching  Berdimukhamedov's discussions in the US during his current visit. It couldn't  have escaped their attention that highly influential US oil majors from Texas,  which carry much clout within the George W Bush administration at the highest  levels, are sponsoring the visit of the Turkmen delegation to the US. US  Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who once served on the board of directors  of Chevron, is scheduled to meet with Berdimukhamedov.
 
The wild Iranian card
 
Iran fully shares Russia's antipathy toward US "poaching" in the  Caspian region. This was in full display when Berdimukhamedov visited Tehran on  June 15-16. Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad cautioned his Turkmen  counterpart, "Certain powers are in their own interests turning the issue of the  Caspian Sea into a challenge among regional countries ... certain bullying  powers are after the oil and energy resources of the Caspian Sea, but the  environment and security of the sea has a major impact on the life of the  littoral states."
Ahmadinejad made it clear that Iran will strongly  oppose the US presence in the Caspian region. The Iranian position is that the  establishment of sustainable security within the Caspian region must be the  prerogative of the littoral states (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan  and Iran) and no US involvement will be allowed. Russia sees eye-to-eye with the  Iranian position.
However, Tehran also has its own agenda in the energy  sphere, separate from Russia's, in opposing the US-sponsored trans-Caspian gas  pipeline project. Tehran has consistently canvassed for increased exports of  Turkmen gas, oil and petrochemical products through Iran. Given Turkmen-Azeri  tensions, Ashgabat also traditionally feels more comfortable about exporting its  gas via Iran rather than routing it through Azerbaijan.
The mutual  interest of Tehran and Ashgabat to route gas via Iran to the Western market  found its expression when the energy ministers of Turkey and Iran signed a  memorandum in Ankara on July 13 on gas deliveries from Turkmenistan and Iran via  Turkey to Europe. The idea didn't quite come out of the blue, but it was  nonetheless startling in its freshness. To be sure, the proposal was a direct  snub to Russia. It in essence aimed at helping to revive the Nabucco gas  pipeline project.
It would open up Iran's gas reserves for Western  markets, thereby reducing Europe's dependence on Russian supplies. The proposal  involved 20bcm of gas reaching Turkey annually from Iran and 10bcm from  Turkmenistan via Iran. The entire volume (30bcm) would be added to the  Azerbaijani gas already reaching the Nabucco pipeline heading to Europe, which  would assure the project's viability. The Iranians threw in a big carrot for  Turkey, offering to the Turkish Petroleum Corp the right to develop the South  Pars blocks 22, 23 and 24 without any tendering and on a buy-back  arrangement.
At one stroke, the Turkish-Iranian proposal strove to  undercut Putin's gains through May-June in establishing monopoly on Turkmen gas.  It underscored how Europe could exploit Iran's ambitions as an energy exporter  if only the Iran nuclear issue didn't get in the way. In fact, but for the  standoff with Iran, the Turkish initiative fitted admirably well with  Washington's own energy strategy toward the Caspian.
Not surprisingly,  Washington put its foot down on the Turkish initiative. But the jury is still  out. Most certainly, Washington will have been quietly pleased that Turkey's  memorandum of understanding with Iran is at the very least likely to reinforce  misgivings in the Turkmen mind about committing itself to the  Russian-Kazakh-Turkmen inter-governmental agreement handing over to Moscow  virtual monopoly in the export of Turkmen gas.
The sequence of dramatic  developments has shown that rivalries over the Caspian energy reserves are  getting a great deal more rough and ruthless. All means are fair if the end is  in sight - as in love or war. It will be interesting to watch how Washington  reacts to the Turkish-Iranian tango, as time unfolds. Will it remain adamant  that Europe should have no truck with Iranian gas? Or will it coyly step aside  and let Iran compete with Russia in the European gas market?
 
Ashgabat's China option
 Meanwhile, Ashgabat began some maneuverings of its own. It did its homework  and concluded it could bargain better with Moscow if it had a European option  (with US backing, of course) and, furthermore, that it could do better still  bargaining with Moscow and the Europeans by developing a "China option". At any  rate, Berdimukhamedov arrived in Beijing on a two-day visit on July 17 at  President Hu Jintao's invitation.
Before leaving for Beijing, he said his  visit marked "not only a new page in the chronicles of Turkmen-Chinese  cooperation, but also a milestone in the implementation of Turkmenistan's  foreign-policy strategy". He intended to build on an agreement his predecessor  Saparmurat Niayzov had signed during his visit to Beijing in April 2006  envisaging the construction of a Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline project capable  of delivering 30bcm of Turkmen gas annually for a 30-year period commencing in  2009.
The joint communique issued after Berdimukhamedov's visit to  Beijing said Beijing regarded China-Turkmen relations as an "important  component" of China's foreign policy, while Ashgabat viewed relations with China  as "one of the priority directions" of its foreign policy.
But  Turkmenistan's dealings with China haven't gone down well in Western capitals.  They fear that the West collectively will be the loser if Ashgabat chooses to  send its surplus gas to China instead of to Europe via the Nabucco pipeline.  Indeed, China's breakthrough in Turkmenistan has been impressive.
During  Berdimukhamedov's visit to Beijing in July, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC)  signed a production-sharing agreement for exploring and developing gas fields on  the right bank of Amu Darya River in eastern Turkmenistan with known reserves of  1.7 trillion cubic meters of gas. This was in addition to the CNPC's previously  existing US$1.5 billion contract for gas-field exploration in southeastern  Turkmenistan during the 2007-10 period.
But Beijing has reason to be  nervous. In the ultimate analysis, will Ashgabat deliver what it promises, or  use the China option as a bargaining chip vis-a-vis the Europeans? The Turkmen  deal matters a lot to Beijing. The proposed Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline is  expected to run to China's Xinjiang Uighur autonomous region and link up with  the 6,500km pipeline under construction (to be completed by 2010) connecting  Xinjiang to Guangzhou. Even though Berdimukhamedov assured his Chinese hosts in  Beijing that the "Turkmen side will do everything it can to implement the  agreements ... [and] Turkmenistan has enough surplus gas for export in various  directions", doubts persist in the Chinese mind.
Chinese Premier Wen  Jiabao gave vent to Beijing's anxieties when he told the visiting Turkmen  president of the need to "implement bilateral agreements, [and] work closely on  the gas project". The joint communique also made a pointed reference to "the  need to strictly abide by, and conscientiously implement" Chinese-Turkmen energy  cooperation agreements.
 Shades of a new cold war
 If the Turkmen-Chinese energy deals go through, the West stands to lose  heavily. There simply might not be sufficient surplus gas left for export to  Europe. In comparison, Russia is better placed to absorb the entry of the  Chinese competitor on the Turkmen gas scene. As for Tehran, its overriding  priority is that the "Great Satan" (US) is kept away from Turkmen energy  reserves at any cost. Iran welcomes China's presence in Central Asia. Besides, a  Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline system could easily be connected to Iran at a  future date, giving Tehran direct access to the Chinese energy  market.
These cross-currents have found expression in recent weeks. In  the middle of August, on the eve of the annual summit meeting of the Shanghai  Corporation Organization (SCO) in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, the US Trade and  Development Agency offered a financial grant to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan for  conducting feasibility studies to build trans-Caspian undersea pipelines. The  timing was perfect. Washington wanted to restrain Turkmenistan from drawing too  close to the SCO, as that would be a great leap forward in the realization of an  Asian energy grid.
Also, Washington finally succeeded in getting the EU  to get its act together for a coordinated energy policy toward Central Asia and  Russia. On September 14-15, a conference was held in Budapest where the EU  resoundingly affirmed its intention to press ahead with the Nabucco project.  Andris Piebalgs, the EU's energy commissioner, described Nabucco as an  "embodiment of the existence of a common European energy policy". The EU  appointed the former foreign minister of the Netherlands, Jozias van Aartsen,  coordinator for the Nabucco project.
The conference clarified the  contours of the 3,300-kilometer Nabucco, which will now originate in eastern  Turkey and run through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary to Austria, with a capacity  of 30-35bcm annually. European banks, especially the European Investment Bank  and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, will fund the project,  estimated to cost 5 billion euros (US$7.1 billion).
Parallel to US  diplomatic efforts in Ashgabat, the EU has also begun working on the Turkmen  leadership. There is a new sense of urgency in Brussels as the EU seems to have  concluded that any effort to break dependence on Russian supplies will have to  begin with Ashgabat.
Immediately after the Budapest conference, Austrian  Economics Minister Martin Bartenstein visited Ashgabat. (Austria has a pivotal  role in the Nabucco project.) Berdimukhamedov told Bartenstein that Turkmenistan  has "multiple vectors in its energy policy and in creating alternative energy  export routes, including in the southern direction through the Caspian Sea, it  is prepared to deliver natural gas to European countries". In other words, he  put on record Ashgabat's keenness to export its gas directly to the European  market without the Russian intermediary.
At the same time, British Energy  Minister Malcolm Wicks also visited Ashgabat. (Wicks is the first cabinet  minister from Britain to visit Turkmenistan in the past nine years.) His visit  followed a high-powered BP delegation, which held discussions in the Turkmen  capital. Wicks took up the trans-Caspian pipeline project  (Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey route) with Berdimukhamedov. He said this feeder  pipeline for Nabucco would be of "special importance" to the EU, which would  fund the project.
Wicks told the media later that Moscow is butting into  Ashgabat's energy policy. He said, "The right to decide on this matter is  Turkmenistan's and Azerbaijan's, and nobody else's. Oil and gas issues are not  just energy issues; they are national-security issues for many countries. The  EU's cooperation with the countries in the [Caspian] region should be seen  through the prism of energy security and national security of all the states  involved in these projects."
Most important, Wicks offered to  Berdimukhamedov that if Turkmenistan sold its gas directly to the European  market, it would be paid at the rate of the prevailing market price rather than  the discounted price at which Russia buys Turkmen gas for re-export to  Europe.
At the same time, the EU has also shifted gear in curbing  Gazprom's expansion into European markets. On September 19, the European  Commission (EC) adopted a plan that virtually aims at preventing Gazprom from  buying pipeline networks in the EU. While the plan has to travel a long way to  become fully fledged legislation, and there are question marks about the  efficacy of its implementation, it is clear that the EU is deliberately erecting  a new barrier between it and Russia.
This goes beyond a mere energy  issue. The Wall Street Journal wrote, "How to handle Russia ... has been one of  the bloc's most divisive foreign policy issues in recent years ... [The  proposal] reflects an evolution in attitudes that has seen EU countries that  once firmly supported Moscow change their tone."
The daily added, "This  is partly the result of changes in EU leadership, which has seen close friends  of Russia such as former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Italy's Silvio  Berlusconi and France's Jacques Chirac replaced. Russia's actions are also  responsible for the change ... [Moscow's] willingness to use energy supply as a  weapon of foreign policy spooked and angered European leaders."
Clearly,  a sort of "trans-Atlantic solidarity" is forming in Brussels on energy dialogue  with Russia. This has obvious political and strategic overtones. More and more  European countries are accepting Washington's demarche that the West must speak  with one voice in relations with Russia.
Brussels is in effect demanding  that Moscow choose between controlling transmission networks in Europe and  remaining a supplier of energy. But the idea goes beyond that. EC President Jose  Manuel Barroso told the media, "We need to place tough conditions on ownerships  of assets by non-European companies to make sure we all play by the same rules."  In actual terms, Barroso demanded that the Kremlin should give European oil  companies the chance to buy assets in Russia if Gazprom wanted to buy in the  EU.
But Moscow sees reciprocity in a different way. The Kremlin asserts  that state control over Russia's energy reserves is not something unique to  Putin's Russia. It says the situation is the same in France or Norway, for  example. The influential chairman of the Russian Duma's (parliament's)  international affairs committee, Konstantin Kosachev, warned that Russia would  retaliate. "We shall have to restrict our foreign partners' access to the  corresponding strategic industries of the Russian economy to the same extent we  are denied access to certain branches of the west European free-market  economies," he said in Moscow on September 19.
He stressed, "Nobody  should expect Russia will display endless philanthropy and unremittingly  sacrifice its national interests for the sake of preserving an illusion of  partnership. This will never happen."
The blasts of the new cold war have  begun blowing across the oil and gas fields of the Caspian region. History is  repeating itself. It was over control of the fabulous Baku oilfields that a  concerted Western military intervention took place at the time of the Bolshevik  Revolution of 1917. The "Baku Commissars" of the Red Army, who resisted, became  the stuff of Soviet folklore. And in World War II Adolf Hitler committed his  Panzer divisions in a desperate drive to seize control of the Baku  fields.
The blasts beginning to blow across the Caspian region threaten  to be every bit as unpredictable as the turbulence triggered by the US  missile-defense controversy and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's  continued expansion into the territories of the former Soviet  Union.
 
Caspian summit in Tehran
 Thus as Caspian leaders assemble in Tehran for their summit in about two  weeks' time, a huge East-West divide has appeared, which seemed improbable even  six months ago. Putin arrives in Tehran on October 16 on his first visit to  Iran. At stake are several tense issues.
Putin will want to hear from  Berdimukhamedov what is going on in the complicated Turkmen mind. He will look  forward to hearing from Berdimukhamedov, fresh from his visit to the US, that  Ashgabat is still committed to the May agreements on quadripartite energy  cooperation involving Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and  Turkmenistan.
Certainly, Putin won't be pleased with a legacy that in the  closing months of his presidency, middle-level US diplomats and oil executives  might have stumped him in Russia's Central Asian backyard. Moscow will pull out  all the stops to prevent this. Admittedly, Moscow has much leverage and Ashgabat  will be aware of the perils of brazen independence from Russian  influence.
Meanwhile, China too will be closely watching for signs if  Berdimukhamedov intends to fulfill the commitments he made in Beijing during his  July visit. If Berdimukhamedov decides to opt for the latest Western packages on  the trans-Caspian pipeline, Turkmenistan's cooperation with China may suffer.  That would raise doubts about the prospects of China receiving 30bcm of Turkmen  gas annually for the next 30 years.
As regards Tehran, it will try to  persuade Berdimukhamedov that consorting with the US might not prove to be for  his own good in the medium and long terms. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev,  on the contrary, will encourage Berdimukhamedov to continue undeterred and  instead move along the track of the trans-Caspian pipeline project.
One  thing is certain. Settlement of the Caspian Sea's status will remain postponed,  as the present differences among the littoral states preclude the possibility of  major trans-Caspian projects of the sort that the EU and the US espouse - and  that suits Russia and Iran.
Of overarching importance will be the impact  of all this on Russia-Iran relations. The two countries share common concerns  over Ashgabat's energy policy in the coming months as well as on Caspian Sea  issues. Russian-Iranian convergence of interests on regional issues has once  again surged to the forefront. A question remains: How will this geopolitical  reality influence Moscow's policy at a time Washington is hoping to isolate  Iran?
Of course, if Washington succeeds in effecting Turkmenistan's  "defection", that will constitute a severe setback for Russia's regional  interests. The Central Asian states, especially Kazakhstan, will draw their own  conclusions, which in turn could impact on Commonwealth of Independent States  integration.
It may be twilight in the White House in Washington. A  highly controversial era may be coming to a close. Bush's friends may be  beginning to desert him. Der Spiegel wrote this week, "Sixty corporate CEOs  [chief executive officers] who had previously donated primarily to the Bush  campaigns - including John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Rupert Murdoch of News  Corporation and Terry Semel of Yahoo - are now giving more money to the  Democrats ... It is all too apparent that the political energy is seeping out of  the West Wing of the White House."
But Der Spiegel's list of the 60  renegade US corporate giants cannot include the oil majors. Cheney and Rice have  just about ensured that.
M K Bhadrakumar  served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for more than 29  years, with postings including ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-98) and to Turkey  (1998-2001).